The Age of False-Bottoms in Real Estate is Here
The Anatomy of a Housing Market at a Potential False Bottom
I do a significant amount of work for distressed funds and thought this research would be interesting to share. This is only the San Diego MSA but most other MSA’s in the state look very similar. Mark
I was on CNBC several weeks back with Erin Burnett and she asked if there was any chance for the Case-Shiller to suddenly spike one month in the near-term. I said ‘no major spike — but there absolutely will be price leveling and even rising in some the hardest hit MSA’s’. It’s time to revisit this.
In my April 30th report entitled ‘Housing (bottom) Update’ I highlighted the reasons why some of the hardest hit MSA’s might do well over the near-to-mid term:
- artificially depressed supply through gov’t and bank-specific foreclosure moratoria;
- artificially low rates and temporary tax benefit;
- foreclosure mix-shift creating an artificial skew higher in reported median and average prices;
- And fleeting seasonal demand.
Essentially, everything is artificial and so should the bottom that comes out of it. I have been looking for this false bottom phenomenon to play out for months and believe it is here.
The San Diego MSA is a perfect example of a market experiencing a false bottom. It is a very interesting and unique market that I believe will show a bottom in reported house prices as soon as the next Case Shiller report. It may even report a decent sized increase in median and average house prices.
San Diego MSA – The Anatomy of a False Bottom
San Diego is not unlike most other hard hit MSA’s. Prices are down significantly, sales have increased year-over-year creating excitement and speculation, and the majority of the sales are happening at the low end. The mid-to-upper end is languishing. For various artificial and temporary reasons, there is only a couple of months supply at the low and literally ‘years’ of supply at the high.
San Diego total sales are hovering around 3k per month. This is up sharply from the lows of 18-months ago when prices were still near the highs and all of the exotic loans went away suddenly creating a sudden and violent sales trough.
But sales are nowhere near robust in a historical context especially when considering that median house prices are down 44% from the peak and rates are at historic lows. If this market was truly on the mend, sales would be much higher especially now, during the peak season. Sales actually dropped 10% from April to May.
Some will argue that low sales reflect low inventory, which I do not necessarily agree with. But, if that is the case we should see a price surge in the near-term that proves it.
Prices have also fallen sharply in the past 18-months. The sudden fall coincides perfectly with the sudden loss of all exotic loan programs in Q3 2007. Please note the series of events that took place during the dramatic house price slide from over $500k in June 2007 to a low of $280k in Jan 2009.
The 2008 surge in foreclosures shown below kept this market over-supplied in all of 2008. This accounts for much of the relentless home price slide through the end of 2008 as pictured above. Then, foreclosure moratoria beginning in Q4 2008 (below) kept foreclosure-related resale supply at a bare minimum…much less supply than demand for low priced properties.
When you combine a median price decline of nearly 50% with artificially low rates and a genuine lack of supply through moratoria, it will create support — and it did. But as noted in the first chart showing sales counts, it has not created a surge in sales.
The average present value of properties entering the REO supply pool as shown in our data below, revealed a price turn in March. We highlighted this in our April report entitled ‘San Diego Housing Market Alert’.
But because REO resales only make up only about 35% of total sales vs roughly 60% statewide, they are not as much of an influence over pricing as in other hard hit MSA’s around the nation. This may point to the loss of exotic loan programs as more of a problem for this market initially than foreclosures.
But even with foreclosure-related sales running lower than the statewide average in this market, they will still influence prices. And the shift in the value mix of properties entering the REO resale pool to higher priced properties will influence median and average house prices going forward.
Shown below — the low priced band (blue) is shrinking relative to total new REO supply from the upper price bands. As this higher priced property mix is resold, it will have the effect of lifting median and average values. In other MSA’s where the percentage of REO to total housing is much greater, the mix-shift has a much greater effect.
The following chart of monthly bank owned properties is the last look available at the pool of REO resales before they are listed with a Realtor and resold. These data are unique and totally proprietary to ForeclosureRadar.com and The Field Check Group.
At the Notice-of-Default stage, the mix shift is even more pronounced and occurred earlier. This is because the REO chart above is made up of loans that may have gone into default as long ago as a year — during the heart of the Subprime implosion. Subprime loans were lower in loan amount attached to lower priced homes generally.
The Notice-of-Default mix-shift chart below shows real-time monthly loan defaults containing a much greater number of higher loan amount Alt-A, Jumbo Prime and Prime loans on higher priced homes.
Much More Supply Coming
But before you get too excited about the prospects of San Diego real estate and put in an order for a pool of REO’s to flip or notes to work out, a wave of foreclosures is coming.
In the past three months alone, Notice-of-Trustee Sales are back at near peak levels of 2500 per month. An NTS is the second stage of foreclosure that comes 14-60 days prior to the property being taken to the courthouse and sold.
With most loss mit and mortgage mod plans known to servicers now, there is little reason to file an NTS unless in fact the property has a good change of going to foreclosure. With San Diego sales at about 3k per month, 2500 NTS per month could cause a serious supply/demand imbalance that must be absorbed for this market to become and remain healthy. This will be especially difficult considering that the peak sales season ends in August and Notice-of-Defaults (two charts down) that feed NTS, have also surged recently. Judging by the flow, recent NODs will feed foreclosures perhaps through the end of the year — that is as far out as we can see.
This NTS surge is especially troubling considering that foreclosure related supply only presently makes up approx 15% to 20% of total housing supply and Ma and Pay Organic homeowner make up the rest. With 3000 monthly sales and supply coming at a rate of 75% of total sales, that does not leave a lot of demand for organic sellers. First timers and investor can’t carry this entire market on their own. Organic sellers must be able to sell and re-buy in order to keep demand stable and strong.
Notice-of-Defaults – the first stage of foreclosure that occurs after a borrower misses 3-4 payments — have surged in the past five months. The dip down in 2008 was solely due to a CA moratorium law — SB1137 — that had the effect of kicking the can down the road.
There have been more new Notice-of-Defaults each month for the past five months than properties sold. NOD’s turn into foreclosures within 5-8 months — this is not a great sign. The new mortgage mod initiatives had better work well.
Mid-to-High end Trouble
Mid-to-high end loans and the home attached to them are where the real trouble lies in the near-term. The two charts below show the monthly new loan defaults and foreclosures for mid-to-high end properties.
Mid-to-high end NOD and foreclosure counts stand between 35% and 40% of total counts but account for only about 20% of total sales. This means that foreclosure-related pipeline supply is 100% greater than demand in this segment. This is a major supply/demand imbalance that will bring serious trouble to this market over the near-term. Especially considering that this particular foreclosure related supply only makes up approx 10% of total mid-to-high end supply with Ma and Pay Organic homeowner once again making up the rest.
In this market segment especially, first timers and investors have little impact — organic sellers need to be able to sell and re-buy in order to keep demand stable and strong.
This will promote significant house price and rent compression over time that may put in jeopardy the low-price housing stability seen today.
Jumbo REO has also been held artificially low due to moratoria. With only 300-400 units entering the resale pool each month since the moratoria kicked in and more exotic and longer-term loans left over from the bubble years, the mid-to-upper end market has not gone through the same tragic price melt-down as the lower end — yet.
Lastly, third party professional investors/buyers at San Diego courthouse foreclosure sales have not stepped up what they are willing to pay like the retail buyer has. Price declines in this segment have decelerated and may show stabilization soon, but after only one month it is too early to call.
With rents tumbling and the primary purchasers at the courthouse foreclosure auctions being professional investors, I think this chart is very telling.
Bottom Line: Headlines are about to get wild, as the age of false bottoms in real estate is upon us.
At Field Check Group, we do highly granular work on every CA MSA and other states upon request.
Best Regards,
Mark Hanson
Mark@TheFieldCheckGroup.com
Data provided to Field Check Group Real Estate & Finance by ForeclosureRadar.com
June 6th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Mark gets props from Alan Abelson in this week’s Barron’s.
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
No Bottom in Housing
By ALAN ABELSON
Housing faces another big wave of foreclosures. Jobs report: no cause for celebration.
cheers!
June 7th, 2009 at 7:19 am
Thanks Mark interesting data. Speculation in
RE is still prevelant and pushed by the gov’t! Your false bottom looks very similar to Japan RE market which after the initial downdraft had a bit recovery which exhasted the buyer pool then plunged another 40 to 50% down in prices.
June 7th, 2009 at 7:42 am
MM,
While I disagree with the (gov sponsored) PR which I know you favor , I also want to thank you for your work.
June 7th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Mr. Mort:
I live in San Diego in the ‘college area’ with many rental signs up for the student turnover season. The signs might be up for a long time if Sacramento cuts back college funding. A for sale sign across the street has been up for a year versus a house 4 doors down recently sold at 400k (person-to-person), looks like the seller got out just in time, the buyer and the remaining seller are about to get whacked (again).
Your work is stupendous, as usual.
June 7th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
I think people need to realize that the entire city of San Diego is an an amusement park for adults… Gas Lamp, Coronado, Pacific, Ocean, Mission beaches, Phillip Rivers?
As such, the RE market in SD will track Six Flags discounts and promotions very closely. Once Magic Mountain is two-for-one, you can be assured we’ve bottomed.
(BTW, Mark, I noticed you did not approve my comment including a link to the Dr Housingbubble Blog. I find this act as pretentious as a 4-year old girl named “Taylor” having a fit on the Hotel Del Coronado pool deck)
June 7th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Good work, Mark. With 9700 homes for sale, down from over 23K a year and half ago, and 9-30 offers on most homes, the 4K pendings/month could easily be 8k – 15k/month. There is insatiable demand on homes up to $300K.
Higher interest rates are going to kill our market.
San Diego Realtor Schahrzad Berkland
June 7th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Pretentious = nickname Benzy
Wife, Mercedes
Fav hotel, Del Coronado of course.
See ya at the Ritz Carlton next time you drive up the coast to Half Moon Bay.
June 8th, 2009 at 6:44 am
Questioner — sales to 3rd parties at trustee sale are surging…highest on record in every courthouse in the state. That is because moratoria have kept foreclosure related supply at a minimum.
With respect to doing a lousy job — the clients who get my research know what it means. I select one of several reports each week to put up on the blog. I am not going to tailor it for retail distribution. Sorry you are unhappy. Which part of San Diego do you live in?
June 8th, 2009 at 6:50 am
Benzy — I did not see that. The system must have done that. Will fix.
June 8th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
RE: #37
“37SistaSue Says:
June 5th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Mark,
Wow that is some serious research!! Could you please explain why my clients have written 5 offers for Single Family Homes in the subs of SD in the 425k-469k range and been bid out of everyone, by about 10k.”
A, Because your clients are idiots (please feel free to convey that to them) for being on the market at this time…and B, because they are in a sea of idiots just like them. Most such idiots will get burned very badly in the coming years, of that there is little doubt.
Although, I have heard quite a few stories of RE agents/Realtors or as I lovingly refer to them, real-turds/real-tards, actually recommending to their clients to “bid over the asking price” on various foreclosures, bank owned/REOs, and even regular old for sales…and here I thought a realtor/agent was supposed to look after their clients’ best interests first and foremost. My friend, who has been to numerous open houses in Corona as well as northeast Orange County, has heard such absurd recommendations from the listing agent as well as a couple of agents that they are acquainted with.
“Well if you are interested, you should definitely bid over asking because there is a LOT of interest, blah blah blah.” Did someone forget to reset these idiots’ programming after the meltdown? They are still using the same BS from the peak days! My friend loves to enlighten them as to the ridiculousness and stupidity of their comments.
“Ummm, if there’s sooooooo much demand, then why has this house sat for months at the ‘great’ price? Why are there dozens, if not hundreds, of foreclosures on the market within the same subdivision, division, neighborhood, zip code, etc.?”
Complete absurdity out there, and any realturd recommending someone should overbid in these market conditions should be put in prison, or better yet, exiled to Antarctica to sell property there.
“And can you tell me why my investor clients bidding on homes in the 200k-230k of Oceanside, chula vista, San marcos are up against multiple offers.?? And could you please maybe make a positive comment on the wonderful time it is for first time buyers to being to afford a home with crazy low interest rates.”
LOL, same answer as before. Because there are plenty of suckers out there willing to lose their money. But as they say, a fool and his money (in this case, their equity) are soon parted. And I love that last line…you’ve still chugging the NAR Koolaid, ain’t ya? I love their recent ads BTW…freaking hilarious. “It’s always a GREAT time to buy real estate!” HAHAHAHA!!!
June 8th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Too Bad Mark’s work attracts the bottom feeders like the previous poster.
““Ummm, if there’s sooooooo much demand, then why has this house sat for months at the ‘great’ price? ”
Shows you don’t know what you’re talking about. If a house sits on the market for months at a certain price, a magic day doesn’t come along when all the sudden several offers arrive. Several offers arrive soon after the latest price reduction makes several shoppers decide it’s an attractive proposition.
There sure is a lot of vitriol out there among the renting ‘class’ .
As I mentioned before, I bought in 98, sold in 06, and will be buying this summer. When I move in about 10 yrs, if I’ve lost equity, it be from the gravy I made earlier. I guess I am an idiot, anybody who buys now is an idiot, just ask the expert, Steve-O. Got your cap on backwards and your shorts half-way down, do ya?
June 8th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Arnold Layne….
So does having made money in RE make you superior to everyone else? Your sh*t doesn’t stink or what?
Are you one of those “had it all planned out” back in ‘98 and was just waiting till ‘06?
As much as there is vitriol among some in the “renting” class…there sure is a lot arrogance among the “owner-debtor” class.
Get off your high horse.
June 8th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
My comment was directed at only one person who decided to class everyone buying now as idiots. Got it? Including the ‘class’ comment.
I have rented most of my life. I’m not a genius, oracle, or seer of the future, but not an idiot either.
June 8th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
This whole RE thing and the majority of charlatans in it has put a very bitter taste in my mouth. Probably the same goes for many others.
Your comments were pretty broad bud….perhaps you should narrow it down because things like “There sure is a lot of vitriol out there among the renting ‘class’” sure seems broad to me. Correct me if I’m wrong.
I despise people who buy property to make money….truly despise. Not because I can’t do it…it’s a not very hard to do…but it’s so low brow.
June 8th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Actually, I will expand the class comment, although originally meant to poke at Steve-O who wrote such an enlightening missive. There is a group of perennial renters, who do hang out on RE groups, who complained all the up in RE prices, and now complain even louder all the way down. Sure there was lots of chicanery, from the individual buyer to Alan Greenspan to Angelo Mozilo. But, really, let’s not demonize people who want to buy a house now. Sure it’s great renting, letting the landlord keep up the repairs etc [mine even put in AC and remodeled the shower!] but still some want to buy now or soon. If the next wave of foreclosures is as big as expected, little ol me won’t be responsible for keeping prices unreasonably high.
take care….
June 8th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Noz.. CNBC, realtors, and and many others… tell everyone, that buying a home, is the biggest investment one can make. We as a society, believe(d) that.. so when your investment is down (just like many financial talk shows on the radio.. you hear all the time…you’re down 50%!.. how long does it take to recover? don’t stay with the same position/stocks.. to call them, as they can help re strategize..blah..blah)
Because of the last 30+ years, due to inflation they may have been right, but many are walking up..but the Ponzi scheme is ending! A home should be place afordable on one salary (not two), where a family can live in…and I strong believe where going back to that notion.. and it won’t stop until we’re all on the same page, and GREED/FRAUD is removed for now(GREED will come back later.. after many years.. just under a different theme..as bubles will always hapen, and people still don’t learn from them)
In regards to hyper inflation coming I strongly thing it will not, but one of the two posibilities (pick your weapon.. for those that are still greedy!)
- deflation (past/current)
- stagflation (more borrowing/printing.. higher interest..still deflating stocks, homes)why..because the BIG UNEMPLOYMENT and cut in salaries.. that’s why.. no afordability to support your reflation in homes!
In any event prices have a lot more to go down! and stay down for a while, until GREED is removed from our generation!
June 8th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
sorry about my grammar, didn’t spell check, and typed pretty quick.. I see some errors! ouch
June 8th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
The 64K question is… why are the Banks that used TARP money ready to pay it back already to the government?
a.) They don’t want anymore regulations, CEOs want their big pay?
b.) Now that they’ve sold more stocks, after many financial stocks went up 100% to 400%, since march 9th they can aford it?
c.) Their financial situation is much better than anticipated/stress tested?
d.) Do they want to pay it back, let stocks drop again, and do TARP 2 (or really same one, but borrow again, repeat? another bounce, sell some more, pay it back?
d.) Any other ideas?
June 8th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Ex Owner Now Renter…..
For God’s sake, use your spell check…….I hear you, and sometimes even agree with you…Sadly, many of the lenders are using the TARP money to buy servicers. Today, one of my servicers that I deal with told me that they are closing, because B of A is buying them! Ken Lewis has big ones!!!
The banks are having fun right now, with our money.
June 8th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
loanmodchick,
I’ll start doing the spell check… but good point!
So when do they start lending in bigger volume? (I thought that was the purpose for the TARP..maybe I’m naive to believe that..)
June 8th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Ex Owner Now Renter-
I dont’ think the lenders will start lending in bigger volumes.
Again, sometimes, I do agree with you. I too, thought that was the purpose of TARP …OBAMA……ONE BIG ASS MISTAKE AMERICA!
The bond market is crashing……let’s see what plays out. In my opinion, it won’t be pretty. Rising rates? Lower housing prices.
Lower housing prices, more walk aways. More walk aways, more foreclosures….We are rats on a wheel.
June 8th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Noz,
I’m not really sure what this site’s purpose is. Some like me, thought at first someone doing nice free analysis.. unbiased
Some of the services provided by it, it’s for *investors*, and *banks* as I’m quickly learning, and probably for a fee. (I understand that)
On the other hand it could be the biggest front on the PR fight at the *right time*, (but surely not by the banks, but will be pushed it on the government~tax payer..so banks don’t loose)
June 8th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
loanmodchick,
It will be interesting to see what happens when the 8,000 (DP) treat is taken away.
June 8th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
ex owner now renter~
Sweetheart…..you can clear a room, can’t you?
Mark’s research is awesome. It is, of course, up for debate.
PR’s are necessary Sorry they weren’t doing them when you owned your home.
Stop being such a narcissist.
June 8th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
loanmodchick,
I would argue against that, and say “remove forclosure from credit” is necessary, or give everyone 100K-500K money that could be used toward buying a home, or spend it in the economy would be necessary.
Or that a PR is something that the bank must do! (not the rest of tax payers)
I’m not narcissist… but a fighter for those that can’t fight! While you’re sweat as well, I believe you’re part of the PR gang favoring the gov intervention, correct?
June 8th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
I like how “prudent” renter Noz considers the vitriol directed at a broad group all of a sudden offensive now that it’s directed at his renting class instead of HELOC-tapping toy-hauling bubble buyers, especially when Arnold’s comment was directed at Steve-O’s emotion filled asinine diatribe.
The fact is, Noz, any participant who made money by selling at the peak is in fact better than you and I, as determined by the very metric this site is about- real estate finesse.
And, consider that if the “prudent” did in fact have deep and intimate knowledge of the RE Bubble and it’s impending burst, then they would have made a small fortune from it.
Arnold did, you didn’t. He wins.
June 8th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Ex Owner Now Renter-
I believe that foreclosures on credit reports will be no big deal in 2 years…….
After all, our “New Great One” has to save the economy, and Turbo Tax Geitner, is a part of it and he has to save face too.
Hang in the Sweetie, your credit scores will come back sooner than later! Did you mean to say I am sweat as well, or sweet as well? You confuse me with your spelling. C’mon baby cakes…….slow down, take a breath, and put your words together and spell right. I know you have something to say, and I really am hearing you……just slow down and use your words correctly. Half of us are right in the future of the housing market, and the other half is wrong. This is a forum of debate, not personal attack. PEACE.
June 8th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Benzi,
I guess some that are better informed of others, or maybe older, maybe better educated, or had a better circle of friends, or maybe bought the house for investment only and sold at the peak! Nothing wrong with buying low, selling high..right?
What I don’t understand, as per MM, the PR should be done for all those that bought homes from 2003-2007…is that it means there were 4 bubble years, why wasn’t it stopped in 2003? or maybe 2004? If government didn’t see it (or didn’t want to stop it), or banks wanted to make more commissions WHILE IT’S HOT.. how can we blame the bubble buyer (some young, like me in their 30’s, some older that finally jumped in with what ever saving they had..and now loosing)
What lesson do we learn, if (gov sponsored) PR goes through? Does everyone that refi and pulled out cash during bubble years get the PR too? No damage to credit, get to keep the house, no lesson learned .. however everyone else (renters, homeowners without a balance, pre 2003/post 2007 buyers) gets to learn a very good lesson.. buy a home and REFI to 200% of value, don’t make payments? The hate, and riots that will start, will make a joke out of housing, and our credit system. The hyper inflation that could start because of it, could be with us 3 to 5 to 10 years? Our super power status GONE!
People make mistakes, we supposed to learn out of it, right? Rent, save, pay down rest of debt, and hopefully get another try at it… those that haven’t participated in the bubble get 8K to go buy one… maybe prices will still go down some more, but I find it hard to believe we’re all speculators? Are we? Are we all greedy? Nobody left to buy to live in it?
This will end very bad, if gov sponsored PR goes through…picking who get rewarded… keep in mind, H4H didn’t work, bankruptcy didn’t pass, why?
It doesn’t make sense politically, nor economically to have gov sponsored PR.. if anything.. let the ex-owners come back sooners (including those that are going to foreclosure now.. alt a/prime..cause remember after foreclosure.. their credit is trashed too!)
June 8th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
loanmodchick, I meant sweet as sugar!
June 8th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Ex Renter Now Owner……..
I love emotional men. …Again, and I can’t say it enough… I hear you…….Yes, some will win and some will lose.
Some will get lucky (ie loan mods) and some will not and lose their homes to foreclosure. H4H is a joke.
Daily, I am calling Washington, the CEO’S of the banks and raising my voice. If you only knew who many times these loans were sold and resold….
WE MUST fight back!! TOGETHER we can make a difference. Pick up the phone. Call your senator, congressman, or whomever. Need some phone #’s? What state are you in, my dear, misundertood, Ex Renter Now Owner? I will be happy to provide you phone numbers!
Want to call some bankers? Ken Lewis? Jaime Dimon?? I have their numbers…….And yes, Government saw this coming, an no, they didn’t care. They are in bed with Wall Street…everyone is, or maybe was swinging from the rafters. They partied like we only did in our dreams.
June 9th, 2009 at 12:43 am
Benzy,
Instead of owning a home, I saved. For the most part, I’ve saved more than my friends have made from their purchases.
The difference is…I don’t have to work full time if I don’t want to…but I do to make and save and spend even MORE money. I take vacations throughout the year much more so than any friend I know who owns a home. I go out more and enjoy having A LOT more disposable income. And I didn’t have to wait over 8-10 years to reap rewards.
There are more ways than one to skin a cat. I guess someone who’s too narrow-minded would only think building wealth can be done by owning a home….aka…you. That’s the only metric you know….unfortunately.
In the last 8 years I’ve saved close to half a million dollars. So tell me…house poor, renter rich…who wins?
June 9th, 2009 at 8:44 am
Noz, we’re all independently wealthy moguls of personal finance on the internets.
June 9th, 2009 at 9:28 am
Benzy…the difference between you and I is that I never claimed I’m wealthy..but your arrogance got the better of you.
June 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Just to be totally clear, can you guys explain what you mean by government sponsored PR? If I owe $500,000, you want the government through Judges to tell the bank to magically change my principle to $400,000… depending on affordability?
June 9th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Noz, let’s address your post.
YOU write:
“the difference between you and I is that I never claimed I’m wealthy”
After YOU write:
“I don’t have to work full time …make and save and spend even MORE money… vacations throughout the year …enjoy having A LOT more disposable income…saved close to half a million dollars..”
Is my point taken? Good.
Then YOU write:
“your arrogance got the better of you.”
After YOU write:
“My wife and I make well over six figures.”
Noz, it surely appears that you feel insecure because of your renter status. I say this for a variety of reasons, one being the tell tale act of flexing your imaginary financial situation on the interenet, and secondly this revealing collection of posts written by you:
“So does having made money in RE make you superior to everyone else?”
“I despise people who buy property to make money….truly despise.”
“you don’t own a damned thing..the bank does.”
And my favorite:
“From deep down in the bottom of my heart that flippers and people out to make a buck on RE fry in Hell. I mean that.”
Noz, it’s blatantly obvious that you’re bitter as all hell for being a renter and don’t have nearly the financial fortitude that you claim.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Benzy,
Good luck with that “internet emotions detection system” that you seem to have perfected…you better patent it before anyone can do what you do. I’m sure we’d all love to be armchair experts like you are.
If I didn’t know any better, I’d say you’re projecting your own issues and insecurities onto others here.
Sorry you couldn’t save as much as me….try a little harder.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Noz, this is the internet. I just saved 500k while you were away.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:51 am
Benzy,
Your bitterness is showing….if you need any tips on how to say, just give a shout out.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Benzy,
Your bitterness is showing….if you need any tips on how to save, just give a shout out.
June 9th, 2009 at 10:53 am
By the way, since this is the internet, thanks for your worldly advice and insight…I’m sure we could all do with more of where that came from.
Keep up the excellent armchair wisdom!
June 9th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Sure Noz, here’s my shout out. I’m always down for a little lunch time fiction. How did you save 500k?
June 9th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Very simple….put away close $60k a year in savings for the 8 years. That’s how.
Hope that piece of fiction goes down easy for ya.
June 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Could you be more specific, Noz? The vagueness infers you’re lying.
Actually, many things infer that you’re lying. But let’s address the vagueness.
June 9th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Benzy,
You really are dense aren’t you. However, you are good at doing research so dig up my old posts and the pieces will fall right into place for ya.
But for your muddied brain, I’ll re-iterate…we put away close to $60K a year….on top of our expenses, rent, and spending money for vacation.
Oh and I forgot to mention, this doesn’t include my retirement money. I know it’s a bit much for your brain to wrap around all this stuff…I mean how can someone who doesn’t own a home save so much…Oh Me Gosh.
Since I don’t consider myself rich…but you do…I don’t see it as a big deal.
But really…what you believe is completely irrelevant.
Thanks for playing.
June 9th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Thanks, Noz. I’ve wrapped my brain around it, finally!
You are the first person I have ever heard of who claims to have a half a mil in the bank, deep six figs of income he doesn’t even need, and yet it still so insecure that he must get approval from anonymous posters on the internet.
You’re like A-Rod posting to a fantasy baseball forum. Or someone claiming to be A-Rod.
June 9th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
I don’t want or need approval from anyone….especially dolts like you. You’re the one pressing issue probably because you’re scratching your head asking why you’re such an idiot.
Brush up on your arithmetic skills…perhaps you’ll finally figure it out. It’s really very very simple…well…for most people at least.
June 9th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Everyone spends money differently and so I suppose there isn’t a right or wrong way of doing it, within reason. Me personally, going back 8 years, say in 2001-02, if I had an extra $5000 month on top my total expense including rent and toys and vacation…. I would have bought a home. Then it would have been fun watching guys like ex_owner paying 3 times as much for a similar house only a few years later.
June 9th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
WONTON:
That’s fine…you are right..everyone has a different approach. No argument there. But I’m not the one saying one is better than the other.
Timing and luck are everything. I could have bought years ago or buy now after prices have come back down to what they were back then…or even lower.
The last 8 years for us have been saving years…we didn’t really have much to begin with…we saved all this time. Now we are ready if we want to buy. And waiting for the right time with money in had is hopefully where we will be in the next year or so.
June 9th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
I know Noz, I wasn’t implying that there was anything wrong with your decision. I just wished I had your kind of money 8 years ago
)
June 9th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Believe me Wonton, it would have been nice for us too. I was in the same boat you were in back then.
Are you looking to buy now or still waiting?