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	<title>Comments on: 7-1 May CA Housing Update &#8212; Mid-to-High End Capitulate</title>
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	<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/</link>
	<description>Stay ahead of the housing &#38; mortgage market</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 11 Mar 2010 06:17:20 -0700</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1294</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:49:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1294</guid>
		<description>Does anybody know if there are state by state data on non-primary residences - which presumably wouldn&#039;t be helped by  Uncle Sam program to buy foreclosures and then rent them? I also imagine non-primary residences would be the first to be jettisoned to foreclosure.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does anybody know if there are state by state data on non-primary residences &#8211; which presumably wouldn&#8217;t be helped by  Uncle Sam program to buy foreclosures and then rent them? I also imagine non-primary residences would be the first to be jettisoned to foreclosure.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1293</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 13:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1293</guid>
		<description>The banks sitting on their shadow inventory of foreclosed homes must have been &quot;tipped&quot; that the US was planning to come in and buy them at a &quot;fair&quot; price.

interesting excerpt...only 51 principal reductions!

 Lawmakers expressed frustration with the lack of traction the administration has gotten from its mortgage modification efforts, saying they fell short of what was needed to counteract the millions of foreclosures in the pipeline.



Allison said the program needed to get on track to accomplish 3 million to 4 million loan modifications by the end of 2012, or about 20,000 per week.

Another program in which lenders accept principal reductions to refinance homeowners into government-guaranteed mortgages has stalled, with only 51 loans refinanced.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The banks sitting on their shadow inventory of foreclosed homes must have been &#8220;tipped&#8221; that the US was planning to come in and buy them at a &#8220;fair&#8221; price.</p>
<p>interesting excerpt&#8230;only 51 principal reductions!</p>
<p> Lawmakers expressed frustration with the lack of traction the administration has gotten from its mortgage modification efforts, saying they fell short of what was needed to counteract the millions of foreclosures in the pipeline.</p>
<p>Allison said the program needed to get on track to accomplish 3 million to 4 million loan modifications by the end of 2012, or about 20,000 per week.</p>
<p>Another program in which lenders accept principal reductions to refinance homeowners into government-guaranteed mortgages has stalled, with only 51 loans refinanced.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1292</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 17:08:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1292</guid>
		<description>Uncle Sam to the rescue to buy foreclosed homes at &quot;fair&quot; prices and collect a &quot;fair&quot; rent, public housing for everyone! Hawaii foreclosures up over 400% last month. Even the -25% mods aren&#039;t enough. What about all the investment properties? Those foreclosures will further crater FL,NV and SC, don&#039;t know the mix of primary residences in CA and AZ, assume it&#039;s mostly primary.

WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - The Obama administration is looking at ways for homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages to remain in their homes as renters, senior administration officials said on Thursday.

U.S. Treasury assistant secretary Herbert Allison told the Senate Banking Committee that the idea was one of several options under consideration for homeowners whose mortgages can’t be made affordable through modification.

“It’s certainly an idea we are thinking about,” Allison said.

William Apgar, senior mortgage finance adviser for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said the administration was exploring a “wide range of options along these lines.” However, he said a key obstacle is that homeowners who have gone through the anguish of delinquency and foreclosure often don’t want to stay in the property as renters. (Reporting by David Lawder; Writing by David Lawder and Tim Ahmann; Editing by James Dalgleish)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Uncle Sam to the rescue to buy foreclosed homes at &#8220;fair&#8221; prices and collect a &#8220;fair&#8221; rent, public housing for everyone! Hawaii foreclosures up over 400% last month. Even the -25% mods aren&#8217;t enough. What about all the investment properties? Those foreclosures will further crater FL,NV and SC, don&#8217;t know the mix of primary residences in CA and AZ, assume it&#8217;s mostly primary.</p>
<p>WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) &#8211; The Obama administration is looking at ways for homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages to remain in their homes as renters, senior administration officials said on Thursday.</p>
<p>U.S. Treasury assistant secretary Herbert Allison told the Senate Banking Committee that the idea was one of several options under consideration for homeowners whose mortgages can’t be made affordable through modification.</p>
<p>“It’s certainly an idea we are thinking about,” Allison said.</p>
<p>William Apgar, senior mortgage finance adviser for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said the administration was exploring a “wide range of options along these lines.” However, he said a key obstacle is that homeowners who have gone through the anguish of delinquency and foreclosure often don’t want to stay in the property as renters. (Reporting by David Lawder; Writing by David Lawder and Tim Ahmann; Editing by James Dalgleish)</p>
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		<title>By: Steve-O</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1290</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve-O</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:26:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1290</guid>
		<description>Hey mee, regarding your NAR Koolaid chugging friend:

{Hi guys, just to let you know i made 14 offers for one couple and they havent won an offer yet. They even went $30,000 over on one of the offers !!! }

Yeah, those &quot;bottomed&quot; homes are getting multiple offers, but how many of them will actually close and change hands?  Unless it&#039;s all cash wheeling and dealing in the 909/Moreno Valley/Inland Empire etc., then the banks are going to be going over those properties with a fine toothed comb.  I&#039;ve heard many a tale about a deal being all set, but the bank won&#039;t fund because the property appraisal/BPO/valuation comes in far below the agreed upon selling price.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey mee, regarding your NAR Koolaid chugging friend:</p>
<p>{Hi guys, just to let you know i made 14 offers for one couple and they havent won an offer yet. They even went $30,000 over on one of the offers !!! }</p>
<p>Yeah, those &#8220;bottomed&#8221; homes are getting multiple offers, but how many of them will actually close and change hands?  Unless it&#8217;s all cash wheeling and dealing in the 909/Moreno Valley/Inland Empire etc., then the banks are going to be going over those properties with a fine toothed comb.  I&#8217;ve heard many a tale about a deal being all set, but the bank won&#8217;t fund because the property appraisal/BPO/valuation comes in far below the agreed upon selling price.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1288</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:07:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1288</guid>
		<description>John, Thanks for DB shadow info. According to them there are about 1MM distressed props and banks actually own almost half, 450K and in CA major markets there are 300K homes and the banks own maybe 150K and these are about 3X the MLS listings there? And there seem to be substantial squatters where homeowners are staying in their homes without paying - although that might be urban legend.

It just makes me wonder how long the banks can delay dumping enormous numbers of homes. If he Geithner pub/private plan goes thru the fast money with only token amount of skin in the game could really accelerate the liquidation process</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John, Thanks for DB shadow info. According to them there are about 1MM distressed props and banks actually own almost half, 450K and in CA major markets there are 300K homes and the banks own maybe 150K and these are about 3X the MLS listings there? And there seem to be substantial squatters where homeowners are staying in their homes without paying &#8211; although that might be urban legend.</p>
<p>It just makes me wonder how long the banks can delay dumping enormous numbers of homes. If he Geithner pub/private plan goes thru the fast money with only token amount of skin in the game could really accelerate the liquidation process</p>
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		<title>By: Steve-O</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1286</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve-O</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:41:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1286</guid>
		<description>LOL, Redfin, I&#039;m with you on that one.  If she&#039;s anything like mine, you can give her all the tangible and credible evidence in the world, and she still won&#039;t understand or want to hear it.  It&#039;s like she&#039;s in denial: &quot;Where are the price drops?  Where are the price drops?&quot;  All around you...don&#039;t bother looking in the weekend Real Estate section of the LA Times, those asking prices are pure nonsense and there&#039;s a reason you see the same properties week after week going on two years now on many of them.  

There should be more than enough information in this article alone, as well as the Deutche Bank analysis that was linked to in one of the earliest comments, to enlighten anyone.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LOL, Redfin, I&#8217;m with you on that one.  If she&#8217;s anything like mine, you can give her all the tangible and credible evidence in the world, and she still won&#8217;t understand or want to hear it.  It&#8217;s like she&#8217;s in denial: &#8220;Where are the price drops?  Where are the price drops?&#8221;  All around you&#8230;don&#8217;t bother looking in the weekend Real Estate section of the LA Times, those asking prices are pure nonsense and there&#8217;s a reason you see the same properties week after week going on two years now on many of them.  </p>
<p>There should be more than enough information in this article alone, as well as the Deutche Bank analysis that was linked to in one of the earliest comments, to enlighten anyone.</p>
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		<title>By: kobio</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1285</link>
		<dc:creator>kobio</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 05:55:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1285</guid>
		<description>redfin,

hello, are you kidding?  How about unemployment?  The state of California going under?  Use your brain.  You&#039;ve waited this long, do you really think prices are going to bounce back up?  What&#039;s six months?  Nothing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>redfin,</p>
<p>hello, are you kidding?  How about unemployment?  The state of California going under?  Use your brain.  You&#8217;ve waited this long, do you really think prices are going to bounce back up?  What&#8217;s six months?  Nothing.</p>
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		<title>By: redfin</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1282</link>
		<dc:creator>redfin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 15:01:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1282</guid>
		<description>Danville Broker - 

Is there something specific you are basing your &#039;6 month&#039; forecast on?  I need something tangible to share with the wife...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Danville Broker &#8211; </p>
<p>Is there something specific you are basing your &#8216;6 month&#8217; forecast on?  I need something tangible to share with the wife&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Whattodo</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1278</link>
		<dc:creator>Whattodo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 03:11:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1278</guid>
		<description>Benzy,

While I understand loan mods take a variety of forms (interest rate deductions, extended terms, etc.), most bloggers I have studied seem to say that the interest rate modifications to the extent they can be done, have been done.  Extended terms saves only a few hundred a month, and the other &quot;modifications&quot; are just to extend Option Arm type loans.  Most blogs imply the only way to save the crisis is a principle reduction.

However, to your point if it is an ARM about to Recast it would help.  Again, however, my point is that if the lender takes it in the chin and refies at 100% or worse yet 125% loan to value, what happens if the property takes another 20% hit.  The owner is under or close to under already.  We have all just delayed the inevitable.

I go back to my original premise.  Bang for the buck.  There is a market and an economic justification for lenders to initiate the foreclosure process on pricier homes, but lenders seem to be foregoing that in lieu of keeping the loans on their books despite 0 cash flow or even negative cash flow (ie. this 1M house is only going to be worth 800K a year from now so their inaction effectively cost them 200K in value)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Benzy,</p>
<p>While I understand loan mods take a variety of forms (interest rate deductions, extended terms, etc.), most bloggers I have studied seem to say that the interest rate modifications to the extent they can be done, have been done.  Extended terms saves only a few hundred a month, and the other &#8220;modifications&#8221; are just to extend Option Arm type loans.  Most blogs imply the only way to save the crisis is a principle reduction.</p>
<p>However, to your point if it is an ARM about to Recast it would help.  Again, however, my point is that if the lender takes it in the chin and refies at 100% or worse yet 125% loan to value, what happens if the property takes another 20% hit.  The owner is under or close to under already.  We have all just delayed the inevitable.</p>
<p>I go back to my original premise.  Bang for the buck.  There is a market and an economic justification for lenders to initiate the foreclosure process on pricier homes, but lenders seem to be foregoing that in lieu of keeping the loans on their books despite 0 cash flow or even negative cash flow (ie. this 1M house is only going to be worth 800K a year from now so their inaction effectively cost them 200K in value)</p>
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		<title>By: Benzy</title>
		<link>http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/07/03/6-19-may-ca-housing-update-mid-to-high-end-capitulate/comment-page-2/#comment-1275</link>
		<dc:creator>Benzy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:42:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/?p=423#comment-1275</guid>
		<description>&quot;Buyer buys a home for 500 in 2005 and puts down 20% with a 400K mortgage. Price drop of 30% puts the house at 350K. Bank eats 50K? Does anyone realize that is still a 100% financed home?&quot;

If that&#039;s a 30 year fixed it makes little sense for the bank to eat it with PR.  

But if there&#039;s a recast in 2010, and despite the likely temporary rate drop the borrower is squeamish and entertaining walking, perhaps a mod in the form of converting the ARM to a fixed is a reasonable approach to avoid foreclosure.

If the borrower approaches the bank and the bank flat out rejects a mod, then perhaps it&#039;s time for that borrower to &quot;free up&quot; the home for the &quot;droves&quot; of qualified buyers sitting on the sidelines [translated, foreclose and send the home into the shadows].</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Buyer buys a home for 500 in 2005 and puts down 20% with a 400K mortgage. Price drop of 30% puts the house at 350K. Bank eats 50K? Does anyone realize that is still a 100% financed home?&#8221;</p>
<p>If that&#8217;s a 30 year fixed it makes little sense for the bank to eat it with PR.  </p>
<p>But if there&#8217;s a recast in 2010, and despite the likely temporary rate drop the borrower is squeamish and entertaining walking, perhaps a mod in the form of converting the ARM to a fixed is a reasonable approach to avoid foreclosure.</p>
<p>If the borrower approaches the bank and the bank flat out rejects a mod, then perhaps it&#8217;s time for that borrower to &#8220;free up&#8221; the home for the &#8220;droves&#8221; of qualified buyers sitting on the sidelines [translated, foreclose and send the home into the shadows].</p>
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