Mark, sorry man, but it’s pathetic. You keep moving around and now on your new site mhanson.com, you come across as whining and making excuses for being outright wrong the past 9 months, and worst of all, you disabled comments. Imagine that, a blog without comments. Hmmmm
As I had mentioned previously, it is pointless analysing data in detail. Look at the BIG picture. Feds have a big magic wand and they intend to stabalize the housing market. The have the cash (as long as China still buys their debt), they have the regulations on their side and they control or have great influence in the top banks.
Heck they could directly or indirectly throw $2 Trillion (or even $4 Trillion) into the housing market. Yes it is all demand and supply but if you create a $2 Trillion demand for housing would that not be enough?
Mark has been using ordinary metrics in an extraordinary situation which is why his predictions are off.
If you believe in herd mentality then data points are useless.
I say if you bought at the peak..and lost your home..you get assistance with 100K down payment.. must leave in the home for 5 years..own it for 10..otherwise pay back the 100K.. Divide your 2 (or 4) trillion…by 100,0000… that would be 1-2 million homes
While MM has 7 other ideas for mid-to-high end can go…I too agree with nr 7:
prices fall in line with the most readily available financing ($417k and below) and to levels at which the majority can afford (and at which they are buying right now).
I want to add though.. that while mid-to-high goes lower.. so will the low to mid ..even further!
Firstly, avg housing price in US is about $280K. So in some instances you do not need $100K. That is why the $8K tax credit is an enticement. $8K is peanuts for a guy buying a home in Ca for $800K but for a $200K condo elsewhere that is almost 5% of the 20% deposit.
Now it is not just the $2Trillion or $4Trillion. They can “guarantee” loans in the case of default another $X Trillions. A lot of these “guarantees” do not even appear on Balance sheet of our government.
Finally, if they selectively prop up 2 million home, together with moratorium they can pretty much put a firm floor to housing prices.
There are lots of buyers and one would be a buyer if:
1) They can afford it. Job losses have stabalized and those still with jobs are now more confident they will not be laid off. Prices have also come down quite a bit making homes affordable.
2) They are confident that prices will not drop further
3) It makes economic sense in terms of the tax deductions for owning a home vs renting. Not to mention that many would prefer to own their own homes.
Right now for many, they have 1 and 3 and they are just waiting for 2.
As it is, most are on this blog site because they are hoping for a good time to buy. They are waiting for condition 2 to apply.
When they sense the bottom has been reached the herd will rush in.
This blog is dead… and the new one ..well it’s not a blog anymore
And to respond your last items:
There are (NOT) lots of buyers because:
1) They can NOT afford it. Job losses have NOT stabalized and those still with jobs are now LESS confident they will not be laid off. Prices have also come down quite a bit making homes affordable BUT we’re not there yet (WE’RE GOING BACK TO PAYING A MORTGAGE WITH 1 INCOME PER FAMILY
2) They are confident that prices will drop further
3) It makes NOT economic sense in terms of the tax deductions for owning a home vs renting. Not to mention ADDITIONAL COSTS, insurance, maintenance, and flexibility that many would prefer to move when need to.. and could not be sell it for years!
Right now for many, they have NONE and buyers from the peak that lost ..and they’re not back in the market yet… many more to still loose their home..and many (boomers) to retire soon..
btw, you must not have read the article… 8K is not really helping homes over 417K
WHERE IS MY 100k HELP? i MAKE 100k..0 DEBT and REBUILT CREDIT ..700 FICO.. i LIVE IN SO CALIFORNIA..AND lost my previous home!! huh???????? I’m sure you’ll find many more in my situation… we’ll go buy above 417K!!!!!!!!
either way, I’m not sure DEPRESSION HAS BEEN AVERTED… or can… when when it’s abvious we’re there… housing is the last thing on our mind!!!!(AND THE CHEAPEST.. try single digit out of an income!)
..FDIC running short..wants to borrow from banks? (which the insure..what an endless loop)
..FHA running short (the new subprime… which I’ve mentioned before)
..Contruction loans…well you know the story..
..Option ARMs.. default in high numbers before RECAST..
..SHADOW inventory..70% of foreclosures…
..BOOMERS retiring..
..Unemployment going higher..
..BANKS DON’T LOAN..
..no activity for homes above 417K..
..consumer has stoped consuming, borrowing..
I can go on and on… you STILL think it’s bottom? GET READY FOR CLIFF JUMPING #2
“Wonton said…Mark, sorry man, but it’s pathetic. You keep moving around and now on your new site mhanson.com, you come across as whining and making excuses for being outright wrong the past 9 months, and worst of all, you disabled comments. Imagine that, a blog without comments. Hmmmm”
No kidding Wonton. The last straw was when case shiller started going up – first time in 3+ years. At that point, he got desparate and started criticizing the methodology (funny how he never criticized it when it was going down). That for many was the last straw.
Notice too how I called him out on his youtube posting? If you recall, he once had a video he called “the quickening” where he breathlessly described the systematic dumping of assets, set to begin in late 2008.
Yet when you go to youtube, why, whats this? The quickening video has disappeared! Its funny, his 7 other videos (where he doesnt make specific predictions – just generalities) are still there. Yet the one video where he makes specific predictions, (which were spectacularly wrong) he just pulls the plug?
ISP,Wonton,tomh …….keep talking ! it’s comical ! MARK IS FAR MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE THAN YOU THREE PUT TOGETHER !!!! OH YES , SO AM I ! AND AS THE ex_owner_now_renter Says: Bottom is spring 2012 ! (AT THE EARLIEST)!
“ISP,Wonton,tomh …….keep talking ! it’s comical ! MARK IS FAR MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE THAN YOU THREE PUT TOGETHER !!!! OH YES , SO AM I !”
Yeah Jim, sure Jim, whatever Jim!!! I guess that’s why Mark has been in hiding the last few months, and bank stocks are tripled or quadrupled since the beginning of the year.
You gotta take off them rose tinted shades and continue looking at the BIG PICTURE ! IT’S THAT EASY ! I here what your saying but this isn’t over yet ! the government is screwing everything up !they need to back off and let this recession do its thing so life can go on !it will have to get worse before it gets better ! but they are not ! they are only prolonging the inevitable !MARK HAS NAILED MOST EVERYTHING ON THE HEAD !HE CANT PREDICT THE THE STUPIDITY OF BERNANKE AND OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION !ONE THING I DO KNOW IS THAT WE WILL HAVE HELL TO PAY IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS IF THINGS DONT CHANGE QUIKLY ! ACTUALLY I THINK IT’S TO LATE . BUT WHO AM I TO SAY .IM REALLY DONE TRYING TO EXPLAIN MY REASONING . PEOPLE SAY IM JUST TO NEGATIVE . I SAY IM JUST A REALISTS WITH A THEORY THAT HAS JUST HAPPENED TO GET THIS WHOLE MESS RIGHT, FROM THE VERY BEGINNING !
I too have been following Mark for some time, so I am also frustrated about the way his blog flits from site to site. It’s really hard to keep up with the current location. OTOH, in Mark’s defense, my personal opinion tends to agree with him. Mark spends a lot of time culling through raw data and breaks it down in a logical manner. The MSM (fed by the pols) is way off the target. I believe that the markets are propped up to benefit the banks. I furthermore believe that this is a concerted conspiracy to prop up the financial markets to prevent a meltdown and ensuing revolution. You who think that bank stocks present a great investment (wonton), keep buying them and profiting. I for one see a collapse in the future. But I digress. My point is that I think that Mark Hanson has very detailed and insightful analysis, and will continue to follow his postings with interest, whether or not his predictions play out along a given timeline.
Mark, from a grateful reader, keep up the good work.
Jim – answer me this (post #16) why did he remove his “the quickening” video? Why that video (where he made a specific prediction that failed) but no other videos?
Hey MM! When r u going to lay off the principal balance reductions issue?????????
A lot of people bought many cars, vacations, etc, etc… with refi money! and now you want to reduce it????
WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE THAT LOST THEIR PRIMARY HOME ALREADY? They lost the home, credit, down payment… where is their help? like 100K to buy another home… STOP BEING ONE SIDED… and stick to your analysis, not try to make it worse! there are un intended consequences… TRY PISSING OFF PEOPLE LIKE ME… AND I’LL NEVER BUY AGAIN… or people that paid CASH…OR PEOPLE THAT ARE MAKING PAYMENTS…. STOP THE CIRCUS MARK!
To learn more about getting hot mortgage lead transfers and how our services can help your business grow, call 313-778-1493. Have a great day.
Live Mortgage Leads 4 U Company provides Exclusive Hot Live Mortgage Leads TransfersLA, California; Chicago, Illinois; New York, NY; Houston, Texas; and other cities and states.
mhanson.com has been hacked. Depending on the browser or computer, I either get an “Access Forbidden” message or a message identifying the site as an “Attack Site”.
BTW, I like Mark’s information and analysis. It’s stuff you can’t find anywhere else. Unfortunately, Mark is having the same problems that those of us in the stock market have. The fundamentals keep pointing down but government intervention keeps everything going up. The disconnect will have to be resolved sometime. It’s a matter of how long can they keep kicking the can down the road. I know EX_OWNER_NOW_RENTER doesn’t like to hear about principal reduction but that is one of the ways to get the fundamentals in housing values resolved. But as he pointed out, it has a lot of side effects. Him being pissed off is the least of anyone’s worries. The writing down the value of all the mortgaged backed securities out there will be the real disaster.
MH,
may have disappeared but i havent and i will say what i said 2 years ago PRINCIPAL REDUCTIONS ARE THE ONLY ANSWER TO THIS DISASTER….and that would PR for everyone with a mortgage, to avoid moral hazard of helping some and not others..mortgages that are current, delinquent, equity, underwater, adjustable, fixed, etc…it would be based on some set formula and maybe this weakling in the white house will finally MANDATE it
i dont know how MH just disappeared when he had saw a large audience and the CRISIS just keeps getting worse by the month…..that i find even stranger the obama not helping the homeowner after one year of talk, lies and NO results…..MH you need to get back in the saddle and make your case , you eventually be proved correct !!!
August 27th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Can people blog anymore on your new site? Appears not…
August 27th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
I mean add comments
September 9th, 2009 at 11:42 am
ex-owner, Mark keeps moving his blog to shake you. That’s why comments are disabled.
September 9th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Benzy…I wouldn’t doubt it!
September 15th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
Mark, sorry man, but it’s pathetic. You keep moving around and now on your new site mhanson.com, you come across as whining and making excuses for being outright wrong the past 9 months, and worst of all, you disabled comments. Imagine that, a blog without comments. Hmmmm
September 17th, 2009 at 10:14 am
As I had mentioned previously, it is pointless analysing data in detail. Look at the BIG picture. Feds have a big magic wand and they intend to stabalize the housing market. The have the cash (as long as China still buys their debt), they have the regulations on their side and they control or have great influence in the top banks.
Heck they could directly or indirectly throw $2 Trillion (or even $4 Trillion) into the housing market. Yes it is all demand and supply but if you create a $2 Trillion demand for housing would that not be enough?
Mark has been using ordinary metrics in an extraordinary situation which is why his predictions are off.
If you believe in herd mentality then data points are useless.
September 17th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
I guess we could keeping adding comments here…
September 17th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I say if you bought at the peak..and lost your home..you get assistance with 100K down payment.. must leave in the home for 5 years..own it for 10..otherwise pay back the 100K.. Divide your 2 (or 4) trillion…by 100,0000… that would be 1-2 million homes
tomh..you think that’s enough?
September 18th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
9-17 Ominous Mid-to-High End Housing Data Point
While MM has 7 other ideas for mid-to-high end can go…I too agree with nr 7:
prices fall in line with the most readily available financing ($417k and below) and to levels at which the majority can afford (and at which they are buying right now).
I want to add though.. that while mid-to-high goes lower.. so will the low to mid ..even further!
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Firstly, avg housing price in US is about $280K. So in some instances you do not need $100K. That is why the $8K tax credit is an enticement. $8K is peanuts for a guy buying a home in Ca for $800K but for a $200K condo elsewhere that is almost 5% of the 20% deposit.
Now it is not just the $2Trillion or $4Trillion. They can “guarantee” loans in the case of default another $X Trillions. A lot of these “guarantees” do not even appear on Balance sheet of our government.
Finally, if they selectively prop up 2 million home, together with moratorium they can pretty much put a firm floor to housing prices.
There are lots of buyers and one would be a buyer if:
1) They can afford it. Job losses have stabalized and those still with jobs are now more confident they will not be laid off. Prices have also come down quite a bit making homes affordable.
2) They are confident that prices will not drop further
3) It makes economic sense in terms of the tax deductions for owning a home vs renting. Not to mention that many would prefer to own their own homes.
Right now for many, they have 1 and 3 and they are just waiting for 2.
As it is, most are on this blog site because they are hoping for a good time to buy. They are waiting for condition 2 to apply.
When they sense the bottom has been reached the herd will rush in.
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:28 am
This blog is dead… and the new one ..well it’s not a blog anymore
And to respond your last items:
There are (NOT) lots of buyers because:
1) They can NOT afford it. Job losses have NOT stabalized and those still with jobs are now LESS confident they will not be laid off. Prices have also come down quite a bit making homes affordable BUT we’re not there yet (WE’RE GOING BACK TO PAYING A MORTGAGE WITH 1 INCOME PER FAMILY
2) They are confident that prices will drop further
3) It makes NOT economic sense in terms of the tax deductions for owning a home vs renting. Not to mention ADDITIONAL COSTS, insurance, maintenance, and flexibility that many would prefer to move when need to.. and could not be sell it for years!
Right now for many, they have NONE and buyers from the peak that lost ..and they’re not back in the market yet… many more to still loose their home..and many (boomers) to retire soon..
btw, you must not have read the article… 8K is not really helping homes over 417K
WHERE IS MY 100k HELP? i MAKE 100k..0 DEBT and REBUILT CREDIT ..700 FICO.. i LIVE IN SO CALIFORNIA..AND lost my previous home!! huh???????? I’m sure you’ll find many more in my situation… we’ll go buy above 417K!!!!!!!!
either way, I’m not sure DEPRESSION HAS BEEN AVERTED… or can… when when it’s abvious we’re there… housing is the last thing on our mind!!!!(AND THE CHEAPEST.. try single digit out of an income!)
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:31 am
btw….CASH FROM FEDS TO BANKS…ARE FOR RESERVES..NOT LENDING… it’s not making it the MAIN STREET… NO LOANS!
=>
D E F L A T I O N
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:44 am
..FDIC running short..wants to borrow from banks? (which the insure..what an endless loop)
..FHA running short (the new subprime… which I’ve mentioned before)
..Contruction loans…well you know the story..
..Option ARMs.. default in high numbers before RECAST..
..SHADOW inventory..70% of foreclosures…
..BOOMERS retiring..
..Unemployment going higher..
..BANKS DON’T LOAN..
..no activity for homes above 417K..
..consumer has stoped consuming, borrowing..
I can go on and on… you STILL think it’s bottom? GET READY FOR CLIFF JUMPING #2
September 23rd, 2009 at 6:47 am
sorry about my typos
September 24th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
“Wonton said…Mark, sorry man, but it’s pathetic. You keep moving around and now on your new site mhanson.com, you come across as whining and making excuses for being outright wrong the past 9 months, and worst of all, you disabled comments. Imagine that, a blog without comments. Hmmmm”
No kidding Wonton. The last straw was when case shiller started going up – first time in 3+ years. At that point, he got desparate and started criticizing the methodology (funny how he never criticized it when it was going down). That for many was the last straw.
Notice too how I called him out on his youtube posting? If you recall, he once had a video he called “the quickening” where he breathlessly described the systematic dumping of assets, set to begin in late 2008.
Yet when you go to youtube, why, whats this? The quickening video has disappeared! Its funny, his 7 other videos (where he doesnt make specific predictions – just generalities) are still there. Yet the one video where he makes specific predictions, (which were spectacularly wrong) he just pulls the plug?
How pathetic!
September 27th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
ISP, Wonton, tomh
Bottom is spring 2012 !
(at the earliest)
October 5th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
ISP,Wonton,tomh …….keep talking ! it’s comical ! MARK IS FAR MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE THAN YOU THREE PUT TOGETHER !!!! OH YES , SO AM I ! AND AS THE ex_owner_now_renter Says: Bottom is spring 2012 ! (AT THE EARLIEST)!
October 9th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
“ISP,Wonton,tomh …….keep talking ! it’s comical ! MARK IS FAR MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE THAN YOU THREE PUT TOGETHER !!!! OH YES , SO AM I !”
Yeah Jim, sure Jim, whatever Jim!!! I guess that’s why Mark has been in hiding the last few months, and bank stocks are tripled or quadrupled since the beginning of the year.
October 10th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
You gotta take off them rose tinted shades and continue looking at the BIG PICTURE ! IT’S THAT EASY ! I here what your saying but this isn’t over yet ! the government is screwing everything up !they need to back off and let this recession do its thing so life can go on !it will have to get worse before it gets better ! but they are not ! they are only prolonging the inevitable !MARK HAS NAILED MOST EVERYTHING ON THE HEAD !HE CANT PREDICT THE THE STUPIDITY OF BERNANKE AND OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION !ONE THING I DO KNOW IS THAT WE WILL HAVE HELL TO PAY IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS IF THINGS DONT CHANGE QUIKLY ! ACTUALLY I THINK IT’S TO LATE . BUT WHO AM I TO SAY .IM REALLY DONE TRYING TO EXPLAIN MY REASONING . PEOPLE SAY IM JUST TO NEGATIVE . I SAY IM JUST A REALISTS WITH A THEORY THAT HAS JUST HAPPENED TO GET THIS WHOLE MESS RIGHT, FROM THE VERY BEGINNING !
October 11th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
I too have been following Mark for some time, so I am also frustrated about the way his blog flits from site to site. It’s really hard to keep up with the current location. OTOH, in Mark’s defense, my personal opinion tends to agree with him. Mark spends a lot of time culling through raw data and breaks it down in a logical manner. The MSM (fed by the pols) is way off the target. I believe that the markets are propped up to benefit the banks. I furthermore believe that this is a concerted conspiracy to prop up the financial markets to prevent a meltdown and ensuing revolution. You who think that bank stocks present a great investment (wonton), keep buying them and profiting. I for one see a collapse in the future. But I digress. My point is that I think that Mark Hanson has very detailed and insightful analysis, and will continue to follow his postings with interest, whether or not his predictions play out along a given timeline.
Mark, from a grateful reader, keep up the good work.
October 19th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Jim – answer me this (post #16) why did he remove his “the quickening” video? Why that video (where he made a specific prediction that failed) but no other videos?
December 7th, 2009 at 7:53 am
Hey MM! When r u going to lay off the principal balance reductions issue?????????
A lot of people bought many cars, vacations, etc, etc… with refi money! and now you want to reduce it????
WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE THAT LOST THEIR PRIMARY HOME ALREADY? They lost the home, credit, down payment… where is their help? like 100K to buy another home… STOP BEING ONE SIDED… and stick to your analysis, not try to make it worse! there are un intended consequences… TRY PISSING OFF PEOPLE LIKE ME… AND I’LL NEVER BUY AGAIN… or people that paid CASH…OR PEOPLE THAT ARE MAKING PAYMENTS…. STOP THE CIRCUS MARK!
December 7th, 2009 at 7:54 am
NO WONDER YOU STOPED THE COMMENTS ON THE NEW SITE!…
December 14th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
To learn more about getting hot mortgage lead transfers and how our services can help your business grow, call 313-778-1493. Have a great day.
Live Mortgage Leads 4 U Company provides Exclusive Hot Live Mortgage Leads TransfersLA, California; Chicago, Illinois; New York, NY; Houston, Texas; and other cities and states.
January 2nd, 2010 at 10:54 am
Anyone know if Mr. Mortgage is ever going to allow comments again?
January 13th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
mhanson.com has been hacked. Depending on the browser or computer, I either get an “Access Forbidden” message or a message identifying the site as an “Attack Site”.
I wonder where Mark went.
January 14th, 2010 at 10:30 am
Perhaps his predictions are wrong again and he was to remove evidence before start another new site
January 18th, 2010 at 1:57 pm
mhanson.com appears to be back up again.
BTW, I like Mark’s information and analysis. It’s stuff you can’t find anywhere else. Unfortunately, Mark is having the same problems that those of us in the stock market have. The fundamentals keep pointing down but government intervention keeps everything going up. The disconnect will have to be resolved sometime. It’s a matter of how long can they keep kicking the can down the road. I know EX_OWNER_NOW_RENTER doesn’t like to hear about principal reduction but that is one of the ways to get the fundamentals in housing values resolved. But as he pointed out, it has a lot of side effects. Him being pissed off is the least of anyone’s worries. The writing down the value of all the mortgaged backed securities out there will be the real disaster.
January 23rd, 2010 at 8:28 am
MH,
may have disappeared but i havent and i will say what i said 2 years ago PRINCIPAL REDUCTIONS ARE THE ONLY ANSWER TO THIS DISASTER….and that would PR for everyone with a mortgage, to avoid moral hazard of helping some and not others..mortgages that are current, delinquent, equity, underwater, adjustable, fixed, etc…it would be based on some set formula and maybe this weakling in the white house will finally MANDATE it
i dont know how MH just disappeared when he had saw a large audience and the CRISIS just keeps getting worse by the month…..that i find even stranger the obama not helping the homeowner after one year of talk, lies and NO results…..MH you need to get back in the saddle and make your case , you eventually be proved correct !!!
January 24th, 2010 at 11:30 pm
Javagold…I thought by now you’ve made your own bailout!! I guess not…
March 1st, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Wonder what happened to ole Mr. Mortgage